Executive Insight, Outage Management, Smart Grid, T&D

ENSO phase still neutral

Sea-surface temperatures are running slightly cooler than normal in the eastern Pacific while averaging more near to slightly above normal across the central and western Pacific. Overall, this indicates that the ENSO phase remains neutral. The latest long-range climate models suggest that this neutral phase will persist into early fall.

By late fall into the upcoming winter, the ENSO phase is projected to be either neutral or a weak La Nina. This will be monitored over the next few months as it could have an effect on temperatures in parts of the country for the upcoming winter season.

As for the month of August, slightly above normal temperatures are forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Intermountain West, south-central Rockies, and Desert Southwest. These regions of the country will likely see a surplus of monthly cooling degree days by between 30 and 90 and energy costs with respect to cooling that are higher than average during the month of August.

Much of the central and eastern United States is projected to see temperatures that on a whole average closer to normal. A possible negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) at times over the next month or two may allow for periods of cooler air to move across parts of the eastern half of the United States, which would influence the overall temperature outlook for the month of August.