Wind industry survey predicts 11 percent growth in market


March 24, 2003 — A Danish wind power consultancy has forecast 11.7% average growth in wind power installations over the next five years.

In this year’s industry report from BTM Consult ApS, the consultancy also predicted that 2003 would see a growth of 24% over 2001.

With 7,227 MW of new capacity brought on line, 2002 was a record year for the global wind power industry, the report stated.

A growth in annual installation of 6%, however, was the lowest since 1996 and far below last year’s 52%. Nevertheless, the industry has shown an average growth
rate of 35.7% over the past 5 years.

Europe consolidated its leading position, accounting for 85.3% of all new installations in 2002. The US market fell back to a quarter of its peak in 2001. Asia demonstrated a steady development. These are among the findings for 2002 in the latest World Market Report, released by BTM Consult ApS on March 20.

Other key features of the report are:

Demand side

“- The world’s cumulative installation passed 32,000 MW.
“- A major share of new installation took place in Europe, with 85.4% of the total. Germany alone accounted for 53% of the European total.
“- Development in Asia was slightly lower than in 2001.
“- The Top Ten markets in the world are headed by Germany, Spain, Denmark and the USA. Newcomers to the Top Ten were Australia and The Netherlands.
“- The US market fell back from its peak level of 1,635 MW in 2001 to a modest 429 MW in 2002.
“- Penetration of wind power in the world’s electricity supply had reached 0.4% by end of 2002.
“- Emerging markets in Asia are Japan & Australia.

Supply side

The Top Ten suppliers in the world consolidated their position by supplying 95% of the 2002 installations. Other key findings in relation to the supply market were:

“- Vestas Wind Systems (DK) maintained its position as No.1 supplier, with a market share of 22.2%, followed by Enercon (GE) with 18.5%.
“- The ranking of the five leading companies is: Vestas (DK), Enercon (GE), NEG Micon (DK), Gamesa (ES) and GE Wind (US)
“- The highest relative growth in market share was shown by REpower (GE) and Ecotàƒ©cnia (ES).
“- German suppliers are increasing their market share, gaining some 6% compared with 2001.
“- Seven of the Top Ten suppliers increased their market share. Four companies lost market share.

There are some 25 suppliers of wind turbines in the world. The remaining 15 (other than the Top Ten) shared 5% of the total market.

Forecast 2003-2007

This year’s forecast for the period up to 2007 indicates overall expansion, with an average growth rate of 11.2% per year. For 2003 a growth of 24% over 2001 is expected.

Total demand during the five year period is expected to be 51,000 MW. Europe will continue to be the leading continent. Offshore development in Europe will take off on a large scale from 2006 (particularly in Germany and the UK).

The US forecast is uncertain and dependent of the extension of the PTC and other drivers. By the end of the forecast period, 83,000 MW of capacity will be on line, of which 58,600 MW is in Europe.

Long Term Prediction up to 2012

Improved economics of wind power technology and increased competitiveness justify an expanded growth rate beyond 2007. Major drivers are economics, flexible mechanisms related to the Kyoto Protocol and an increase in electricity consumption.

The prediction indicates an annual installation level of 24,000 MW by 2012. Cumulative installation growth to 177,000 MW will equal a penetration of wind power close to 2% of the world’s electricity consumption by 2012.

The WMU 2002 report also analyses other aspects of wind power development, including the segmentation by turbine size in the commercial market, the development of next generation multi-MW turbines (from 3 to 6 MW in size) and the potential offshore market.

For more information, visit the BTM Consult ApS web site at http://www.btm.dk/.

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