Over the past month, sea-surface temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean have not changed much. Parts of the eastern and east-central Pacific continue to see sea-surface temperatures at near to slightly cooler than average levels, but overall the development of a La Nina is not looking that impressive at the present time.
In fact, the latest long-range climate models now indicate only about a 35 to 40 percent chance of a La Nina developing during the next few months. The more likely scenario is that the ENSO phase will remain neutral, meaning no La Nina or El Nino present, during the upcoming winter season. There is the potential for longer periods of colder weather across parts of the central and eastern United States during the winter months in which a more neutral phase is in place so this trend will have to be monitored.
As for the November temperature outlook, at least slightly above normal temperatures are forecast throughout portions of the Great Basin, Intermountain West, Desert Southwest, south-central Rockies, and Texas. A deficit of early-season heating degree days as well as slightly lower energy costs with respect to heating can be expected across these regions of the country.
Much of the northern and eastern half of the United States is projected to see temperatures that on a whole average closer to normal during the month of November.