Overall, summer 2014 likely will go down in the books as cooler than normal across much of the Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
The latest climate models and indices suggest that more shots of cooler air can be expected as we head into September. Portions of the northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes likely will see slightly cooler than normal September temperatures. As a result, these regions are projected to see a surplus of early-season heating degree-days by between 20 and 60. Parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley also could see temperatures a little below normal, but overall readings should be closer to normal throughout most of these areas.
On the flip side, slightly warmer than normal temperatures are predicted across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin and parts of the Desert Southwest. Monthly cooling degree-day totals will be higher than average by between 30 and 90 across these regions. As far as the El Nino watch goes, sea surface temperatures still are slightly warmer than normal across mainly the eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, but the overall warming trend has leveled somewhat during the past month. Long-range climate models still indicate a 70 to 80 percent chance of an El Nino forming during fall or winter.