The El Nino phase continues to maintain itself across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea-surface temperatures are warmer than normal across much of the Equatorial Pacific. The latest long-range climate models indicate a 70 percent chance of El Nino persisting through summer and a 60 percent chance that El Nino will remain through fall.
The ongoing El Nino likely will play a role in temperatures across parts of the U.S. this summer. Slightly warmer than normal June temperatures are forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin and northern Rockies. Moderate to severe drought conditions that have developed across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota could help provide warmer temperatures across these parts of the country, as well. Total monthly cooling degree-days will be at a surplus of between 20 and 60 across these areas.
On the flip side, parts of the eastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic might see June temperatures average slightly cooler than normal. This could be partly because of the NAO’s (North Atlantic Oscillation’s) going negative within the past few weeks.
Much of the southern U.S. is predicted to see June temperatures that average closer to normal.