A weak El Nino continues to persist across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean with sea-surface temperatures remaining slightly above average for the most part. The latest long-range climate models indicate that this weak El Nino will remain in place through the summer months and possibly into the upcoming fall season.
With that being said, slightly below normal temperatures are forecast across portions of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and western Great Lakes during the month of June largely as a result of this weak El Nino. It is also possible that the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) could still be negative as we head toward June, which would also likely lead to more average or possibly slightly below average temperatures for parts of Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley in June. Slightly less than average total monthly cooling degree days along with lower than average energy costs with respect to cooling are anticipated throughout parts of these regions of the United States.
In contrast, parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Desert Southwest, and Four Corners region are projected to see temperatures that average slightly above normal. As a result, total monthly cooling degree days and energy costs are predicted to be somewhat higher than average across these areas.