Equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to warm

Sea-surface temperatures across the western and eastern parts of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean have warmed slightly during the past month. This indicates that El Nino is still developing and is becoming more likely as we go through the summer and head toward fall. The latest long-range climate models have a 70 to 80 percent chance of an El Nino becoming established during the next few months. If this occurs, it could influence the winter temperature outlooks across the United States.

As for August, slightly above normal temperatures are predicted throughout portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, as well as across parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. These regions likely will see a monthly surplus of cooling degree-days by between 30 and 60 and slightly higher than average August cooling costs.

In contrast, parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest could see slightly cooler than average temperatures with a cooling degree-day deficit of between 30 and 60 possible. Much of the East Coast, Midwest and Great Lakes likely will see temperatures average closer to normal.


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