Sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern parts of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean have cooled slightly during the past month and continue to be below average. The neutral ENSO phase has officially transitioned into a La Nina phase. The latest long-range climate models now indicate about a 75% chance of this La Nina phase persisting through the upcoming winter season. Needless to say, it will likely be one of the major influences on temperatures across parts of the United States throughout the next few months.
As for the November outlook, slightly above normal temperatures are forecast across portions of the Intermountain West, southern Rockies, and Desert Southwest. These regions of the country are expected to see a deficit of monthly heating degree days of between 30 and 90 as well as slightly lower energy costs with respect to heating. Parts of New England may also see temperatures average slightly above normal during the month of November with a deficit of heating degree days of between 20 and 50 possible. Temperatures are projected to be closer to normal across portions of the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Deep South.