During the past month, sea-surface temperatures across much of Equatorial Pacific Ocean have remained slightly above average. Also, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean have warmed slightly more. These trends indicate that an El Nino is slowly developing.
The latest climate models continue to predict that an El Nino will fully develop during summer.
Slightly above normal July temperatures are forecast throughout portions of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Desert Southwest and California.
A surplus of total monthly cooling degree-days of between 30 and 60 is expected in these regions. Parts of the southern Plains also are projected to see warmer than normal July temperatures with monthly cooling degree-day totals’ exceeding normal values by between 30 and 90.
Ongoing drought conditions could enhance temperatures throughout this part of the country. Cooling costs likely will run at least slightly higher than average across both of these areas.
On the flip side, slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes with a deficit of cooling degree-days of between 30 and 60 projected for July.
Temperatures will average closer to normal throughout much of the East Coast, mid-Mississippi Valley and Rockies.