Temperatures are expected to average slightly above normal across portions of the Intermountain West, north-central Rockies, north-central Plains, upper Midwest, and Northeast during the month of November. Total monthly heating degree days are projected to be lower than average by between 30 and 60 across these regions of the country. Also, energy costs with respect to heating are likely to be below average as well throughout these parts of the United States.
Much of West Coast, southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast will likely see temperatures average closer to normal in November. It should be noted that the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) continues to be positive and is forecast to remain so for the near future. However, if it finally becomes negative as has been anticipated for the last few months, it could result in cooler conditions across parts of the eastern third of the United States in November.
As for the ENSO phase, it is still neutral at the present time. The latest long-range climate models still indicate an El Nino phase for the upcoming late fall and winter, although the percentage chance in some of the models has dropped slightly on this prediction. At this time, it appears that if the El Nino fully develops it will be on the weaker side. This will continue to be monitored over the next few months.