There has been little change in the sea-surface temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the past month. The central and western Pacific continue to see near normal sea-surface temperatures while slightly cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures persist across the eastern Pacific, meaning the ENSO phase remains in a neutral state and there are still no signs of an El Nino or La Nina developing. Latest climate models indicate that this neutral phase will likely persist throughout at least the coming fall season.
As for the October temperature outlook, climate indices are pointing at slightly warmer than normal temperatures across the Desert Southwest, central and southern Rockies, as well as parts of the south-central Plains. Early-season heating degree totals are forecast to be below average by between 15 and 60 across these regions of the country during October. Some climate indices also suggest that parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes will also see temperatures that average slightly above normal in October. However, there are some factors that could hinder such a projection such as a possible negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a more active/wetter weather pattern. Both of these are hinted at by a few of the climate models. With this being the case, more near normal temperatures are forecast throughout the eastern half of the country as well as the northern tier states during October.