We’re not out of the Woods for a Potential El Nino

Sea-surface temperatures across much of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are near to at least slightly warmer than average at the present time. This indicates that the development of an El Nino phase is still possible.

Most long-range climate models agree with this scenario giving at least a 50 percent chance of an El Nino phase developing during the upcoming summer and fall months. To what extent an El Nino will develop is still uncertain and this will be key in determining how much influence on temperatures across parts of the United States it will have over the upcoming months.

As for the month of June, slightly above normal temperatures are predicted across parts of the Desert Southwest, eastern Gulf Coast, Deep South, and Southeast. These regions of the country will likely see a monthly surplus of cooling degree days of between 20 and 60 as well as at least slightly higher than average early-season energy costs with respect to cooling.

On the flip side, parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest are forecast to see temperatures that on a whole average slightly cooler than normal during the month of June. This will lead to a lower than normal monthly cooling degree day total by between 20 and 40 across this part of the United States.

Much of the Northeast, Great Lakes, Midwest, central Plains, Rockies, and West Coast will likely see closer to normal temperatures in June.    







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