Study: Shift to renewable, gas, nuclear to accompany energy legislation

Fairfax, Va., July 8, 2010 – ICF International’s recent Integrated Energy Outlook projects a shift to renewable, gas and nuclear sources of energy should new carbon legislation be passed by the U.S. Congress.

Energy experts at ICF International, foresee the retirement of a substantial number of coal-fired electric generation facilities because Hazardous Air Pollution regulations will require large capital outlays for pollution control equipment.

“Uncertainty has become a constant in the energy industry in the wake of unstable commodity prices, price volatility and looming environmental regulations,” said John Blaney, senior vice president for ICF International.

The latest version of ICF’s quarterly Integrated Energy Outlook seeks to answer the key industry questions of whether energy market prices will continue to recover or slip back to 2009 levels, and how energy prices and new regulations will influence power markets.

Key findings of ICF’s second quarter Integrated Energy Outlook include:

“-    The carbon dioxide allowance price ceiling will be binding in some, but not all, years should Congress pass the Kerry-Lieberman American Power Act.

“-    HAPS regulations will require large capital outlays on pollution control equipment and the retirement of a substantial amount of coal-fired electric generation capacity.

“-    Robust growth in gas demand will apply upward pressure on natural gas prices.

“-    New combined cycle generating capacity will not be economically viable over the next five years, although the timing varies across regions.

“-    California’s Renewables Portfolio Standard may be the most aggressive in the country, but the sheer size of the PJM Interconnection market contributes to greater overall renewable energy demand.

“-    Coal prices are expected to rise in the near term because of growing domestic and international demand.


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