1009 Executive Digest.Weather

Sea-surface temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to be cooler than average by about 1 to 2 degrees in most areas. This indicates that the La Nina phase, which developed during the summer, is maintaining strength. Current climate models suggest this La Nina will persist until at least the first part of 2011.

This La Nina is expected to affect fall and winter temperatures across the nation. During October and November, mean temperatures are forecasted to be slightly warmer than average across much of the Midwest, OhioValley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which stubbornly has remained negative, is still expected to become positive during the next couple of months. This positive NAO forecast further supports above-average temperatures across the eastern third of country during middle to late fall.

Early season heating degree-days will be lower than normal by between 60 to 120 across these portions of the country. The Desert Southwest likely will see mild weather, which will result in small heating degree-day deficits. Portions of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest are forecasted to see slightly cooler than average temperatures during this time. Higher early-season energy costs with respect to heating likely will be the result. What kind of winter will it be? The answer will depend largely on the strength of the ongoing La Nina, which will be monitored in the weeks to come.

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1009 Executive Digest.Weather

Sea-surface temperatures across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to be cooler than average by about 1 to 2 degrees in most areas. This indicates that the La Nina phase, which developed during the summer, is maintaining strength. Current climate models suggest this La Nina will persist until at least the first part of 2011.

This La Nina is expected to affect fall and winter temperatures across the nation. During October and November, mean temperatures are forecasted to be slightly warmer than average across much of the Midwest, OhioValley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which stubbornly has remained negative, is still expected to become positive during the next couple of months. This positive NAO forecast further supports above-average temperatures across the eastern third of country during middle to late fall.

Early season heating degree-days will be lower than normal by between 60 to 120 across these portions of the country. The Desert Southwest likely will see mild weather, which will result in small heating degree-day deficits. Portions of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest are forecasted to see slightly cooler than average temperatures during this time. Higher early-season energy costs with respect to heating likely will be the result. What kind of winter will it be? The answer will depend largely on the strength of the ongoing La Nina, which will be monitored in the weeks to come.