During the past month, sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean have begun to show signs of cooling. This cooling trend could indicate that La Nina is trying to redevelop.
Long-range climate models continue to suggest that the present neutral phase will remain through the fall with a La Nina phase possibly returning this winter. As for October, warmer than average temperatures are expected to continue across portions of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains.
The severe drought conditions in Texas likely will enhance temperature anomalies across that state again. Late-season cooling degree-days are expected to be at a surplus by between 30 and 60 in these regions. Cooling costs also will be slightly higher than normal.
Some climate indices also forecast mild temperatures across the Great Lakes, Midwest and Ohio Valley. As a result, early-season heating degree-day deficits of between 30 and 60 are predicted. Slightly lower than normal early-season heating costs also are possible throughout these portions of the country.
Meanwhile, temperatures across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies are expected to be slightly cooler than average, which likely will lead to higher than normal total heating degree-days by between 30 and 60 during October. Much of the East Coast will see temperatures that are closer to average.