Sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean have continued to cool during the past month. As a result, the neutral ENSO phase has now fully transitioned back to a La Nina phase. The latest long-range climate models suggest that this La Nina will get stronger and persist through at least winter and likely will have a major influence on temperatures and precipitation across portions of the United States during the next few months.
As for November, some climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) suggest temperatures will average slightly cooler than normal across the Northeast. Parts of the Pacific Northwest are also forecast to be cooler than average. Total heating degree-days are expected to be higher than average by between 30 and 60 across these regions.
Meanwhile, portions of the upper Midwest, central and southern Plains, and southern Rockies are projected to see slightly warmer than normal November temperatures with early-season heating degree-day deficits of between 30 and 60.
Much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Southeast and Intermountain West are forecast to see temperatures average closer to normal.