Drought raises temperatures

Not much has changed during the past month regarding the ENSO phase in the equatorial Pacific. A neutral phase is persisting as sea-surface temperatures remain close to average throughout much of the equatorial Pacific.
 
The exception continues to be in the eastern Pacific, where sea-surface temperatures are running slightly warmer than average — between 0.5 and 1.5 C — indicating the possibility of El Nino’s developing is still there. Some climate models suggest this transition might begin during the next couple of months, although there are no clear indications of El Nino’s developing at this time. Whether El Nino develops likely will affect the winter.
 
As for the late summer, early fall temperature outlook, warmer than average conditions are forecast to continue across the central plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
 

The ongoing drought across much of these regions is expected to play a major role raising temperatures. Similar extreme drought years such as 1936, 1954, 1983 and 1988 had warmer than average temperatures that lasted into September. A cooling degree-day surplus of between 30 and 90 is projected across these areas. Parts of the Desert Southwest and south-central Rockies also might see temperatures slightly above normal. Parts of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, however, will see slightly cooler than normal temperatures with cooling degree-day deficits of between 30 and 60 possible.

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Drought raises temperatures

Not much has changed during the past month regarding the ENSO phase in the equatorial Pacific. A neutral phase is persisting as sea-surface temperatures remain close to average throughout much of the equatorial Pacific.
 
The exception continues to be in the eastern Pacific, where sea-surface temperatures are running slightly warmer than average — between 0.5 and 1.5 C — indicating the possibility of El Nino’s developing is still there. Some climate models suggest this transition might begin during the next couple of months, although there are no clear indications of El Nino’s developing at this time. Whether El Nino develops likely will affect the winter.
 
As for the late summer, early fall temperature outlook, warmer than average conditions are forecast to continue across the central plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
 

The ongoing drought across much of these regions is expected to play a major role raising temperatures. Similar extreme drought years such as 1936, 1954, 1983 and 1988 had warmer than average temperatures that lasted into September. A cooling degree-day surplus of between 30 and 90 is projected across these areas. Parts of the Desert Southwest and south-central Rockies also might see temperatures slightly above normal. Parts of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, however, will see slightly cooler than normal temperatures with cooling degree-day deficits of between 30 and 60 possible.