Expect warmer weather this September

Climate indices suggest that much of the western U.S. will see warmer than normal temperatures during the month of September. This may result in a late-season surplus of cooling degree days of between 30 and 60 across parts of the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Early-season heating degree day totals are forecast to be lower than average, between 20 to 45 across the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Besides the western U.S., there are also some indications that the Northeast and Ohio Valley will see above normal temperatures in September.

The main factor across these regions of the country will be whether or not the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) becomes positive. Some climate models predict that the NAO will go positive into early September. If this holds true, more upper-level ridging could establish itself and allow for warmer conditions in parts of the eastern U.S. These regions could also see a late-season cooling degree surplus between 30 and 60. Much of the central and southeastern parts of the country are projected to see more normal temperatures overall.

As for the ENSO phase, it remains neutral and long-range climate models are now indicating that it may remain neutral through upcoming fall months. 

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