Several of the latest climate models indicate slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected across the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies during November.
Monthly heating degree-day totals are projected to be lower than average by between 20 and 40 across these regions. Parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic also could see warmer than normal temperatures in November, especially if the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index goes back to being positive, which is predicted by some reliable long-range forecast models. A heating degree-day monthly surplus of between 30 and 60 is projected in this part of the country. Both of these areas likely will see slightly lower November heating costs.
More near normal temperatures are expected throughout the Midwest, Southeast, north-central Plains, and Pacific Northwest. As for the latest ENSO phase update, there are still no indications of an El Nino or La Nina forming in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea-surface temperatures continue to remain close to average. The latest climate models suggest this current neutral ENSO phase will persist at least through winter.