KEMA forecasts growth in U.S. competitive retail power markets in 2010

Burlington, Mass., May 19, 2010 — Retail power sales in US competitive markets are forecasted to grow 14 percent in 2010, driven by economic recovery and an overall favorable outlook for competitive retail power markets in the U.S., according to the KEMA quarterly Retail Energy Outlook.

Competitive power sales will continue to post strong growth next year, climbing 9 percent in 2011, making the 2010 and 2011 period one of the largest growth periods for retail power markets since first opening 15 years ago.

“The U.S. competitive retail power market has quietly become enormous,” according to Taff Tschamler, Director of Retail Energy, KEMA. “With the expiration of rate caps in Pennsylvania, moderating wholesale energy prices, an improving economy and advances in certain state policies, the competitive retail market is poised for substantial growth over the coming two years. By 2011, the U.S. competitive retail market will reach 16 percent of all U.S. electricity sales, which would position it as the fifth largest electric market in the world.”

KEMA estimates annual competitive energy sales will total 552 TWh in 2010 and 602 TWh in 2011, up from 483 TWh at the end of 2009.

Ohio and Pennsylvania combined will account for 39 TWh, or more than half the forecasted growth of 69 TWh in 2010.

The non-residential sector accounts for 52 TWh of the 2010 projected growth.

KEMA estimates the share of the market that is served competitively to move from 35 percent of the eligible electricity sales in 2008 to 46 percent in 2011. Based on historical state and national government data sources, KEMA’s Retail Energy Outlook forecasts annual competitive electricity sales over a 5-year span for 68 utility territories in 21 open US markets.

KEMA’s Retail Energy Outlook is published quarterly for clients of its Retail Energy Markets advisory service. The service is part of its retail energy consulting practice, which offers a range of strategic, economic, regulatory and marketing expertise in competitive power, natural gas and energy services industries.

Founded in 1927, KEMA is a global provider of business and technical consulting, operational support, measurement and inspection, testing and certification for the energy and utility industry. With world headquarters in Arnhem, the Netherlands, KEMA employs more than 1,600 professionals globally with offices and representatives in more than 20 countries. KEMA’s U.S. subsidiary, KEMA Inc. is headquartered in Burlington, Mass. and serves energy clients throughout the Americas and Caribbean.


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